Key Insights
from Data Analysis
District-level analysis of UK crime rates and house prices uncovering the relationship, its limits, and what really drives property values.
Top-level KPIs
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Overall Crime vs House Price
Weak overall relationship Pearson shows only a very small association
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Crime Structure Insight
Crime type matters more than total crime volume
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Strongest Local Effect
Anti-social behaviour matters most (r ≈ −0.32 within-district)
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PCA Result
Two crime patterns explain ~70% of crime variation
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Regression Insight
The full crime-type model achieved R² ≈ 0.40
Key Insights
Weak Overall Relationship
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Total crime and house prices show only a weak overall correlation
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Crime alone is not a strong general predictor of housing values
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Aggregate crime statistics obscure the patterns that really matter
Short-Term vs Long-Term Effects
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Within-district analysis shows a stronger relationship (r ≈ −0.32) vs overall (r ≈ −0.03)
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Recent local changes in crime have a greater impact than long-term averages
Perception vs Reality
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Spearman shows anti-social behaviour has a stronger negative association (ρ ≈ −0.30) than most crime types
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Visible disorder has a greater influence on housing demand than overall crime levels
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Buyer perception of neighbourhood quality drives price sensitivity
Evidence of Urban Complexity
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Theft from the person shows a positive correlation (r ≈ +0.37) with house prices
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Bicycle theft also positive (r ≈ +0.28); both reflect urban concentration effects
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High-value areas experience higher activity-related crime, not higher risk
Limitations of Single-Metric Analysis
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Total crime shows a very weak relationship (r ≈ −0.03) with house prices
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Crime-type analysis reveals stronger patterns up to |ρ| ≈ 0.30
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Aggregated metrics hide meaningful relationships present at a more detailed level
Statistical Significance vs Practical Impact
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Most results are statistically significant (p < 0.001) due to large sample size (N ≈ 34,000)
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Even correlations as small as |r| < 0.10 appear significant at this scale
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Statistical significance ≠ real-world impact; effect size must be interpreted carefully
Final Conclusion
Total crime has only a weak relationship with house prices at the district level. However, certain disorder-related crimes, especially antisocial behaviour, have a more meaningful negative association with local housing values. Overall, housing prices respond more strongly to neighbourhood quality and crime composition than total crime volume.